Ademola Braimoh & Bernard Manyena & Grace Obuya & Francis Muraya, 2018." From rain to famine: assessing the utility of rainfall observations and seasonal forecasts to anticipate food insecurity in East Africa,"įood Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. Erin Coughlan de Perez & Maarten van Aalst & Richard Choularton & Bart van den Hurk & Simon Mason & Hannah Nissan & Saroja Schwager, 2019.The results also show mixed forecasting accuracy in situations of transition from food security to food crises and point to geographical areas where investments in early warning data collection and analysis would likely yield valuable improvements in the performance of the system. In addition, we found a significant decrease in accuracy during the 2015/2016 El Niño, likely linked to the heterogeneous impacts from El Niño and higher levels of forecast uncertainty. The results indicate higher accuracy in the western parts of the country and lower accuracy in the generally food insecure northeastern regions – likely due to insufficient information and high levels of vulnerability. The findings show high levels of accuracy in the system overall which should give decision makers a high degree of confidence in using the information provided by FEWS NET. The analysis was carried out for Ethiopia over the period January 2011 to June 2017. We present a replicable method to evaluate the accuracy of the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) food security projections. Inaccurate forecasts result in ineffective preparedness and poor resource allocation. However, the uncertainty that is inherent in climate forecasts and other early warning data can influence the accuracy of early warning systems. These systems require diverse socio-economic, climate and other environmental indicators. ~ The Honorable Mr.Famine early warning systems are fundamental for anticipating and preventing food security crises. Because of devotion to this topic, USAID is more effectively able to identify food insecurity throughout the world and save lives." " work with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network is truly inspiring. In turn, the analysis drives decision-making at international, national, and local levels. Through our management of the FEWS NET Data Hub, Kimetrica is helping USAID to sustainably prevent food insecurity and famine by providing timely, relevant, and evidence-based analysis on the causes, levels, and consequences of food insecurity. The Hub’s mandate for Knowledge and Learning is to make FEWS NET food security-related data and knowledge products more accessible to FEWS NET team members, as well as to users and for uses outside of the FEWS NET team. The Hub team is responsible for managing, maintaining and improving the FEWS NET website platform, while the implementer of the EW team is responsible for the primary early warning analysis and reporting under FEWS NET, as well as for uploading its critical information products directly onto the website. The FEWS NET website platform provides monthly reports and maps detailing current and projected levels of food insecurity alerts on emerging or likely crises and specialized reports on weather and climate, markets and trade, agricultural production, livelihoods, nutrition, and food assistance. It also includes activities related to the design and management of new datasets, visualizations, and analytical tools, as requested by USAID. The Hub’s Data Management Platform (DMP) workstream consists of a set of activities that are designed to manage, maintain, and improve the FEWS NET DMP, including the FEWS NET Data Warehouse (FDW) and the FEWS NET Data Explorer (FDE), as well as other digital applications needed to store, manipulate and disseminate the core FEWS NET databases. It is designed to serve FEWS NET team members and their partners with the technology platforms and strategies necessary to manage, analyze, and disseminate FEWS NET data, information, and other knowledge products. The FEWS NET Learning and Data Hub (“the Hub”) provides a mission-critical, web-based Information Management System (IMS) to enhance the ability of analysts to provide evidence-based decision-making about humanitarian assistance. Created in 1985 by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the US Department of State after devastating famines in East and West Africa, FEWS NET provides near real-time analysis on famine threats in more than 38 highly-vulnerable countries around the world. USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) project is the agency’s longest-running activity.
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